live· last scan 50s ago19,733 mkts0 arbsKPDK
52s agoKWill Samsung Electronics labor union strike before Jun 8, 2026?6.0¢56s agoKWill Greg Abbott be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?0.5¢56s agoKWill Republicans win the U.S. Senate in 2026?54¢57s agoKWill Vivek Ramaswamy be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?0.6¢57s agoKWill Ron DeSantis be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?4.9¢58s agoKWill Eric Trump be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?0.6¢58s agoKWill Pete Hegseth be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?0.3¢58s agoKWill Marco Rubio be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?29¢59s agoKWill Josh Hawley be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?0.8¢59s agoKWill Republicans win the House in 2026?24¢1m agoKWill Donald J. Trump Jr. be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?5.2¢1m agoKWill John Thune be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?0.2¢52s agoKWill Samsung Electronics labor union strike before Jun 8, 2026?6.0¢56s agoKWill Greg Abbott be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?0.5¢56s agoKWill Republicans win the U.S. Senate in 2026?54¢57s agoKWill Vivek Ramaswamy be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?0.6¢57s agoKWill Ron DeSantis be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?4.9¢58s agoKWill Eric Trump be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?0.6¢58s agoKWill Pete Hegseth be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?0.3¢58s agoKWill Marco Rubio be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?29¢59s agoKWill Josh Hawley be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?0.8¢59s agoKWill Republicans win the House in 2026?24¢1m agoKWill Donald J. Trump Jr. be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?5.2¢1m agoKWill John Thune be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?0.2¢
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Real historical opportunity from the Tellmarket index. Numbers are exact (edge, fill prices, duration); the price path between detection and close is illustrative because exchange snapshot density during the live window was thin.
Will Trump win the 2028 presidential election?
real arb · May 18, 2026391s open+3.80% net
kalshi
polymarket
buy KYES46.0¢on Kalshi · size up to $3,700
buy PNO50.2¢on Polymarket
cost96.2¢for guaranteed $1 payout
edge3.8¢+3.80% net
P/L$0.00filling…
Numbers are exact (edge, fill prices, duration, P&L). Animated price path is illustrative — exchange snapshots during the live window were sparse, so the convergence shape is rendered rather than replayed.
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