sportsbook × prediction market

DraftKings vs Polymarket

The same outcome — a team to win, a candidate to take a state — is priced on both a regulated sportsbook (DraftKings) and a prediction market (Polymarket). We strip the vig out of the DraftKings line, compare it to Polymarket’s live price, and show you the better number after fees. Most of the time it’s a directional edge; once in a while the gap is wide enough to lock. Either way, you stop leaving money on the table.

DraftKings odds via The Odds API · Polymarket public data · as of Jun 17, 2026, 3:02 AM

live edges · DraftKings · Polymarket

live feed →

No DraftKings–Polymarket edges clearing the fee buffer right now — the two are priced in line. That’s the honest baseline. The live feed at /edges re-checks every 30s.

Fair value = the no-vig midpoint of the DraftKings and Polymarket prices. Net edge charges one leg of friction (fees + slippage). An edge is directional, not riskless — confirm the live book before trading.

how the comparison works

01 We match the same real-world outcome across DraftKings and Polymarket.
02 We de-vig the DraftKings line to recover its true implied probability (sportsbook prices bake in the house margin).
03 We compare that to Polymarket’s live price and take the midpoint as fair value.
04 If one side beats fair value after fees, that’s the edge. If the gap covers both sides, it’s a rare lock — flagged honestly.

Want the math worked end-to-end? See the calculator, the three-venue explainer, or the full live feed at /edges.

questions

How can DraftKings and Polymarket prices differ on the same outcome?▾

They're different market structures. A sportsbook like DraftKings sets a line with built-in vig (the over-round that pays the house), while Polymarket is a peer-to-peer prediction market where the price is whatever traders agree on. The same real-world question — e.g. a team to win, a candidate to take a state — can sit at a different implied probability on each. Once you strip the sportsbook's vig out, the gap that's left is a genuine difference in price.

What does Tellmarket actually compute?▾

We take DraftKings' line, remove the vig to get its true implied probability, and compare that to Polymarket's live price for the matched outcome. The consensus 'fair value' is the midpoint of the two. When one side prices the outcome better than that midpoint — after fees and slippage — that's the edge we show. It's a single directional leg, not a riskless lock, unless the gap is wide enough to cover both sides.

Is a gap between DraftKings and Polymarket an arbitrage?▾

Usually it's just +EV line-shopping: one venue has the better number and you take it. Occasionally the gap is wide enough that you can back both sides and lock a profit regardless of outcome — a true arb — but those are rare and close fast. We flag the rare ones honestly and never inflate the common ones.

Do I need an account on both?▾

To act on a DraftKings vs Polymarket difference, yes — DraftKings (a regulated US sportsbook, available in ~30+ states) for the sportsbook leg, and Polymarket for the prediction-market leg (check whether it's accessible in your state). Tellmarket is read-only: we show the comparison, you place each leg yourself.

How fresh are the numbers?▾

This page refreshes hourly for search engines; the live, ticking feed updates every ~30 seconds at /edges (filter to DraftKings · Polymarket). Sportsbook lines and Polymarket prices both move, so confirm the live book before you act.