Field guides.
What we’ve learned from a year of scanning cross-exchange prediction-market arbs full-time.
5-minute primer on where the edge comes from, why most hours have none, and what the math looks like after fees.
Side-by-side: regulation, fees, liquidity, categories. Which venue tends to misprice what.
The three-way comparison no one else does: two exchanges and a real sportsbook. Vig vs order book, and where the price is better.
Step-by-step manual edition. Useful for understanding what the Tellmarket scanner is doing for you.
Exact fee formulas for both venues, a worked example, and why the edge we show is the conservative worst case.
2026 status: CFTC-regulated since Dec 2025 via the QCEX acquisition. What changed, what's still state-dependent, and what it means for arb traders.
The per-trade fee formula in plain English, with a worked table showing the cost at every price level — and the quick mental rule.
Honest answer with the math: ~$500 on each exchange is the practical floor, why less makes the subscription unprofitable.
Why one is suitable for systematic arbitrage and the other mostly isn't — pricing model, fees, regulation, and what arb actually looks like on each.
The full pipeline: 30-second ingestion, embedding-based matching, two-LLM verification, edge math, and the data-truth gates we refuse to surface without.